Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Equity Markets: Thank Heaven for Central Bankers

November 30, 2011 will be a day to remember for many Bourse firms.

It's never a pleasant to be wrong. But it's always a pleasure to be wrong when you called the only viable option that would have made you wrong.

Finally the Central Banks convened to lower USD swap costs and consequently ease tensions within the Euro-Area. Acknowledging that the ECB (and IMF-chuckle for those that conceived that piece of gossip) could do little on their own without frustrating donors, Mr. Draghi understood the problematic and the challenge. Europe needed help from its friends: The Fed and its allies, and the Bank of China. One signaled monetary comfort; the other signaled monetary stimulus. In both cases,  the better bankers realized that a demand for the USD could get out of hand and leave an even more fragile Euro begging for crumbs at untenable rates. That setting without improvement on the Chinese economic front, global economies were in trouble.

The best part of the staging is that China is becoming a beach-head participant in the world's financial system. Mr. Xiao's next challenge is to convince his stakeholders that assisting in the European bailout is a necessary condition to not losing out on everything else, and exercise the appropriate actions. Slowly but surely, Chinese pragmatism is waving a wand that signals a change in political directions towards western rhetoric.The only other adjustment China has to make is a concession on the yuan.

The swap arrangements agreed to (who knows when) are effective December 5, 2011 and will extend for 15 months into 2013. Is there anyone that still thinks that Europe has no problem when its own banks show appetite only for USD. Is Europe out of the woods? Not necessarily. This morning, Mr. Cameron et al, are you listening, European unemployment is on a record rise with the exception of Germany, and that will reverse. Mrs Merkel will see a reversal within three months as less and less demand go her way, and more and more constraints are put on businesses.

Well, US President Obama, Fed Chair Bernanke and Secretary of the Treasury Geithner were there again and maybe someday, some inspired filmaker will find a decent moment to direct  real drama. Europe has been saved for a second time by the United States and its credible allies. Bank of China dropped its reserve requirements by 50 basis points in order to help trigger some activity on a slowing economy. This monetary easing was the first sign that November 30, 2011 was going to be a V-Day.

At this moment, there is little left that the Central Banks and Chair Bernanke can do on the monetary front. US Republicans should analyze their own pundits' results on job creation by President's Obama spending initiatives, and improve on the solutions by fine-tuning timing and sectoral interventions rather than dismiss the spending option. Most of all, they should stop battering the US Public Service. The constituents of that sector represent the most faithful spending segment of the consumer population.

Don't knock down the walls that hold back the oceans.

To the many, stay the course.

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